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Prediction for CME (2024-01-23T03:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-01-23T03:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/28748/-1
CME Note: Fast but faint CME seen to the NE in SOHO LASCO C2 and C3. Source is an eruption from Active Region 13559 (N29E18). Opening field lines and brightening can be seen in SDO AIA 171 at 2024-01-23T03:21Z. Brightening also seen in SDO AIA 304 starting at 2024-01-23T03:21Z. This CME is associated with a flare from Active Region 13559 (N29E18), which occurs simultaneously with a lower intensity flare from Active Region 3561 (S19W31). The combined flux of this flaring activity is the M5.1 flare with peak time 2024-01-23T03:31Z. This CME is not visible in STEREO A COR2 imagery due to a data gap lasting from 2024-01-23T03:53Z to 2024-01-23T12:23Z. There is no clear arrival signature for this CME in solar wind data at L1.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-01-26T01:38Z (-3.94h, +5.41h)
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note:

Time of Launch: 2024/01/23 03:40Z
Plane of Sky 1: 09:10Z; 31.5Rsun; NE Direction
Plane of Sky 2: 13:50Z; 31.5Rsun; SW Direction
POS Difference: 4:40
POS Midpoint: 11:30Z
TOL/Midpoint Difference: 7:50

Numeric View/Impact Type: 0
POS Difference Resulted Value: ~8.94
Travel Time: ~8.94 * 7:50 = 70:02

Predicted L1 Arrival: 2024-01-26T01:38Z

Error Parameters:
 - POS Difference: 1 Hour
 - Travel Time: 5%

Notes:
Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 2/5

Lead Time: 25.98 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2024-01-24T23:39Z

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